Surfing Chaos: Mastering Macro Moves & Micro Wins

📆 The Week: Before & After (Macro-Focused)

Last Week (July 7–11)

• Fed Minutes Show Narrow Support for July Cut: The minutes reveal that while some officials favored rate easing given softer data, most preferred waiting amid tariff and inflation uncertainties.
  💡 Insight: Market optimism over cuts is premature—prepare for extended funding costs.

• EU Publishes AI Code of Practice: A comprehensive framework encouraging transparency, copyright compliance, and algorithmic accountability before mandatory regulation takes effect next year.
  💡 Insight: Founders can preemptively build trust and differentiation through voluntary compliance.

• U.S. Markets Ride Tech Rally Despite Tariffs: Equities, led by AI stalwarts like Nvidia, pushed forward even as new tariffs were announced—underscoring selective risk decoupling.
  💡 Insight: Confidence in tech growth remains intact—this can be leveraged in storytelling and capital pitches.

Next Week (July 14–18)

• S&P Week-Ahead Preview: PMI & CPI (Jul 14): This report will be a bellwether for Q2-end policy decisions—demand, wage inflation, and price trends under test.
  💡 Insight: These metrics will influence financing costs and hiring thresholds—plan accordingly.

• Fed Proposes Bank Supervision Changes (Jul 15): Possible new thresholds could change how startups access debt, especially from smaller financial institutions.
  💡 Insight: Stay abreast of changes—it shapes financing strategy and partnership roadmaps.

• ONAR CEO Keynotes GenAI Week SV (Jul 14): Focused on deploying optimized generative models in real-world commerce environments.
  💡 Insight: Vertical specialization in AI is gaining traction—cornerstone for your GTM narrative.

✍️ My Weekly Article Preview

“Hybrid Compute: Where Quantum Meets Enterprise AI”

• Examines the Quandela & Mila quantum-AI collaboration and its real-world test benchmarks.

• Compares compute costs, error margins, and suitability for pilot-stage deployment.

• Features three startups piloting in finance and pharma—results show 10–20% performance boosts.

• Clarifies stack architecture: orchestration layer, photonic backend, integration APIs, and pilot readiness.

• Roadmap guidance: how to join sandboxes, qualify for consortium access, and build proof-of-concept fast.
  

  💡 Insight: Hybrid compute is an early differentiator for forward-looking founders.
  

• 👉 Read more here

📉 Macro, Finance & Geopolitics

• Mixed Fed Messaging on Rate Cuts: With inflation data and tariff volatility, Fed officials remain cautious—even as markets discount easing.
  💡 Insight: Founders must avoid one-track growth expectations and prepare for policy tailwinds or headwinds.

• Housing Market Remains Frozen: High borrowing costs and selling hesitancy keep residential real estate subdued, altering B2B service demands.
  💡 Insight: If you rely on home-related verticals, diversify or hedge against demand delays now.

• Recession Risk Low into H2 2025: Economists project moderate expansion barring geopolitical escalations—offering runway for strategic scaling.
  💡 Insight: With backdrop intact, scaling can proceed—but undershoot budgets to maintain runway.

🧠 Neurotech

• UN AI for Good spotlights non-invasive neurostimulation: The program examined cognitive therapy tools for seniors—an indicator of rising regulatory comfort.
  💡 Insight: Non-invasive neurotech is gaining official legitimacy—ideal for care-focused deployment.

• Investor buzz around early-stage neuro diagnostics: Though no headline deals, VC sourcing indicates substantial interest in pre-clinical biotech.
  💡 Insight: Founders with prototypes should accelerate pitch outreach—capital is moving in.

• FAA exploring brain interfaces for pilots: Initial government grants and RFPs expected later this quarter.
  💡 Insight: Public-sector pathways can be early adoption drivers; track RFP cycles now.

🧬 Quantum

• Quandela & Mila unveil QML platform: Demonstrated photonic-AI synergy surpassing traditional compute speed.
  💡 Insight: Founders in compute should consider quantum moats early—for signal, not scale.

• QuiX secures €15M Series A: Dedicated to accessible photonic qubit systems.
  💡 Insight: Hardware diversification opens new funding and partnership lanes—time to align.

• Xanadu joins UMD QLab consortium: Gains early access to PennyLane tools and ecosystem labs.
  💡 Insight: Consortium membership is more than prestige—it’s pipeline and knowledge access.

🤖 AI

• GenAI Week SV (Jul 13–17): Spotlighted RoboTaxi and live enterprise demos transitioning AI to physical automation.
  💡 Insight: Real-world automation MVPs are now the bar for company maturity.*

• EU AI Code of Practice released: Sets voluntary standards on transparency and rights before formal laws land.
  💡 Insight: Embedding governance early attracts enterprise clients and reduces future rework.*

• Wired on AI creativity vs compute constraints: Stresses how compute bottlenecks shape innovation cycles.
  💡 Insight: Optimize your model stack for efficiency—not just power.*

🧓 Agetech

• Responsible AgeTech ’25 summit (Jul 10): Ponteers out ethics-first care design, focusing on autonomy and data safety.
  💡 Insight: Ethics frameworks are now competitive must-haves for any AgeTech offering.

• AGE-WELL Impact Challenge finalists (Jul 9): Showcases VC-backed and government-funded prototypes targeting senior independence.
  💡 Insight: Being a finalist signals runway perks and partnership paths across healthcare systems.

• CVS Foundation virtual aging pilot (Jul 10): Launching digital wellness check-ins for older users seamlessly integrated into CVS Telehealth.
  💡 Insight: Legacy healthcare channels are embracing digital care—new accelerants for scale.

🌐 Web3, Crypto & Blockchain

• Chainlink, Mastercard partner: The integration comes with help from several Web3 companies, whose technologies offer a compliant user experience.
  💡 Insight: builds the business case for more TradFi/DeFi collabs.

• Post-quantum crypto standard rollout coming: NIST updates expected imminently.
  💡 Insight: Crypto startups should prioritize quantum-proofing to reduce future risks.

• Structured DeFi entities gain traction post-Uniswap ruling: Onshore setups are becoming baseline for compliance.
  💡 Insight: Corporate Guardrails are now trust enablers for institutional participation.

🌱 ESG, Electric & Sustainability

• AI-powered precision agriculture session: Focus on crop-level real-time optimization via edge compute.
  💡 Insight: Edge-enabled farm tech is ready for commercialization—scale pilots now.*

• Quantum materials R&D in UN sustainability panels: Showcased early breakthroughs in catalyst design.
  💡 Insight: Compute-led ESG innovation is establishing thematic funding ecosystems.*

• EV charging deals scaling across OEMs: Partnerships announced to accelerate fast-charging networks.
  💡 Insight: Charging infrastructure is the next growth curve for transport and energy platforms.*

📚 Must‑Read of the Week

A newly defined “rearrangement ratio” gauges the potential to rearrange US imports from China and how this could ripple across the globe.

• Amid pressure on US–China trade, firms may look to rearrange sourcing to alternative suppliers.

• We introduce a “rearrangement ratio” to quantify how hard the change might

• Consumer goods are harder to rearrange than business inputs.

• Europe emerges as the fulcrum of trade rearrangement.

• Prepare for resilience in a reordering world.

✍️ Read more here.

💡 Think Like a CEO – This Week’s Framework

“Twin‑Track Growth Planning: Resilience Meets Opportunity” 

• Create parallel budgets and target KPIs for both Growth and Buffer modes.

• Define macro triggers—like rate decisions or consumer trends—to pivot posture.

• Secure enough funding to maintain ≥12-week runway under buffer constraints.

• Conduct weekly reviews to update strategy based on updated signals.
  

  💡 Insight: Optionality—and the ability to pivot at scale—drives lasting performance.
  

  👉 Read more here.

🛠️ Free AI Tool for Productivity

ChatPDF – Engage with PDF content like with a chatbot.
🎥 Watch demo → YouTube: ChatPDF demo

• Summarizes dense reports, research, and decks instantly.

• Great for founder review sessions, investor decks, and legal doc analysis.
  

  💡 Insight: Save hours in analysis—focus energy on interpretation and action.

📍 Key Events This Week (July 14–18)

1. techUK: Digital transformation and cloud modernisation in UK public sector – Jul 14 (London, Hybrid)

2. GenAI Week Silicon Valley – Jul 13–17 (Santa Clara)

3. The AI Assurance Ecosystem Workshop: Maintaining Momentum - Jul 17 (London)

4. We Are Developers - 10 July (Berlin)

Thanks for reading & Stay cool,

AMC